El Niño Already Wreaking Havoc on Global Fisheries, Creating Winners and Losers

Even before the "super" El Niño officially reaches its peak, this natural Pacific weather pattern, characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, is already causing significant disruption across global fisheries. In a stark illustration of its immediate impact, Peruvian government officials have effectively canceled the anchovy fishing season, a critical export for the country and a primary source of fish oil and animal feed worldwide. Concurrently, the Indian government anticipates a season of smaller, less abundant Indian mackerel. Yet, in a contrasting scenario, recreational and commercial fishers in Southern California are reporting some of their most successful months ever for tuna fishing. These divergent outcomes underscore how El Niño creates distinct winners and losers within the fishing industry, decimating certain species while making others more accessible. For fishers, this translates into profound instability, compelling many to consider seasonal diversification strategies. Consumers, in turn, can brace for fluctuations in the prices of essential fish products. Juan Carlos Sueiro, an economist and fisheries director for Oceana Peru, articulated the prevailing anxiety: "People are worried." He added that with climate change expected to intensify the frequency and strength of El Niños, "our vulnerability is increasing." El Niño, named by Peruvian fishers centuries ago, is a weather phenomenon occurring every two to seven years in the tropical Pacific. Its disparate impacts stem from its influence on ocean water dynamics. Normally, westward trade winds along the equator push warm water towards Asia, triggering "upwelling" – the rise of cold, nutrient-rich water from the deep that nourishes surface algae. During an El Niño, however, these trade winds weaken, slowing or halting upwelling. This reduction in surface algae forces dependent species like anchovies into deeper waters, making them harder to catch and stressing their populations. Conversely, these same ocean dynamics can significantly boost other fisheries. El Niño frequently draws warm-water species, such as skipjack tuna, into the coastal waters of the Americas, regions typically too cold for them. Closer to shore, these species become considerably easier to catch. This dual effect is evident in Peru, where past El Niños have both devastated the country's anchoveta fishery—the world's largest single-species fishery—and simultaneously increased the availability of shrimp, scallops, dolphinfish, and tuna. The current coastal El Niño conditions have already strained anchovy populations, leading to an indefinite fishing ban during the crucial April-to-July season. Beyond the immediate catch, seafood prices are also subject to El Niño's ripple effects. Wild salmon, for instance, can become emaciated from food scarcity during El Niño, earning them the moniker "snakes"; their decline in North American coastal waters can lead to higher ex-vessel prices that are eventually passed on to consumers. In Peruvian markets, prices for jack mackerel and corvina have reportedly doubled, prompting families to opt for more chicken. Conversely, species like shrimp, whose populations have historically boomed during El Niños, might see price reductions. While Southern California fishers celebrate a "special treat" of unprecedented bluefin tuna, swordfish, and blue marlin catches, the broader economic picture remains complex. High winds associated with El Niño can impede shipping vessels, hindering efforts to reel in additional species, and heavy rainfall can damage onshore infrastructure vital for processing and marketing marine animals. Moreover, El Niño's influence extends beyond fishing economies, with high ocean temperatures threatening coral reefs, accelerating kelp deterioration, and potentially even escalating geopolitical conflicts as fishing vessels stray into other nations' economic zones. Scientists like Arnaud Bertrand express ongoing concerns about these wider ecological and societal ramifications.